Meet the Nate Silvers of the Oscar race

Casual awards-season fans may be debating over whether Anne Hathaway is a lock for her performance in “Les Miserables,” or whether a dark horse like “Moonrise Kingdom” can sneak into the best picture race. But among Oscar bloggers, the debate’s already about next year.“I’ve written out a list of films that are almost certainly going to be best picture nominees” in January 2014, said Jeff Wells, blogger for Hollywood Elsewhere, where he prognosticates about everything pertinent to Oscar season. He’s among a coterie of bloggers who track every change in a race that, this year, has been unusually volatile.Oscar prognostication and reporting online is hardly a new phenomenon — the zeitgeist-tracking website Gold Derby went online in 2000, and media reporter David Carr was in the game for a while at the New York Times’ Carpetbagger blog. Other grandees include Kris Tapley at Hitfix, Dave Karger at ticket-sales site Fandango’s new editorial arm, and Mark Harris at Grantland. (Harris is taking the season off to avoid a conflict of interest, as his husband, Tony Kushner, wrote the screenplay for “Lincoln.”)Continue Reading…

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Meet the Nate Silvers of the Oscar race


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