Tag Archives: Confidence

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Boston Fire Chief accused of incompetence in wake of marathon bombing

In a letter of “no confidence” sent to Boston Mayor Thomas Menino, the 13 deputies accuse their chief of failing to take command of the Boyston Street bombing site, leaving the task fully to his inferiors while he stood idly by.The deputies also allege that in another instance where they were responding to a six-alarm fire, they witnessed their boss standing on a rooftop and watching. Instead of directing the response to the fire, the chief was allegedly taking photos of himself with flames in the background for “his scrapbook”. “His justification for failing to take action is indefensible,” the deputies wrote in the April 26 letter, which the Boston Globe obtained. “…You can unequivocally consider this letter a vote of no confidence in Chief Abraira.”The deputy chiefs argue that after the Boston Marathon attack, Abraira uselessly stood by as a spectator while the rest of the fire crew was “heavily involved” in the scene, searching the area for suspicious packages, additional explosives, and checking buildings for structural damage.The deputies claim that Abraira frequently “shields himself from immediate accountability while setting the stage for undermining the confidence and authority of his command staff. While acknowledging his ultimate accountability for department operations, he avoids on-the-scene responsibility.”In an interview with the Globe, Abraira denied the allegations, claiming he responded appropriately at the bombing sites. He said that chiefs are not required to take command of a scene, according to information he obtained from other big city fire departments.“When I got there I was comfortable with what was going on,” he said. “…The nationally accepted practice is that you only take command [as chief] if there’s something going wrong or if you can strengthen the command position or if it’s overwhelming for the incident commander, and none of those things were in fact happening.”Abraira also denied having ever taken pictures of himself while neglecting his duties, calling the accusation “just crazy”. He contended that his deputies are protesting his leadership because he came from outside the department. Abraira previously led the Dallas fire department and served as an assistant fire chief in Miami.A spokeswoman for the mayor said she has “full confidence in [Fire] Commissioner [Roderick] Fraser to do what’s best for the department.” Neither Fraser nor the mayor’s office publicly commented on the letter sent by the 13 fire chief deputies. Read More

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French economy returns to recession

Its economy contracted by the same percentage in the last quarter of 2012, which means two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the definition of a recession.Currently France is experiencing record unemployment, reaching 11% in March, 2013, which is forecast to rise further. The latest figures also showed low business and consumer confidence.The Netherlands, which entered recession three months ago, also showed contraction, with GDP falling by 0.1% in the first quarter of this year. Once one of the strongest-looking members of the eurozone, the Netherlands suffers from rising unemployment and the housing market bubble having burst.The eurozone’s strongest economy, Germany, grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter, far less than 0.3% expected by economists. Read More

Shell presses ahead with world’s deepest offshore oil well

Royal Dutch Shell is pressing ahead with the world’s deepest offshore oil and gas production facility by drilling almost two miles underwater in the politically sensitive Gulf of Mexico. The move is being viewed in the oil industry as a demonstration of Shell’s confidence that its…

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Swedish euro scepticism hits all time high

Fewer than one in ten Swedes want to replace the krona with the euro, in an overall EU-confidence dip that political scientists tie to the financial crisis. Read More

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Governor Brewer Vetoes Gold and Silver Currency Bill

The Arizona senate unanimously passed the Constitutional Tender Act, making gold and silver legal tender by a vote of 18-0 last week. Governor Jan Brewer refused to sign the bill into law, however, and vetoed it. Read More

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Predictions for tomorrow’s jobs report

I’m expecting 130K on total payrolls and 135K on private, so I’m below consensus, which Bloomberg puts at 153K for the total.  I expect the unemployment rate to maybe tick up a tenth.And that’s all the time we should spend forecasting these volatile monthly numbers.  More interesting, I think, is the question of why everyone gets so wrapped up in the monthly numbers when the actual signal-to-noise ratio they yield is not that high.  The 90% confidence interval around the payroll number, for example, is about 100,000, meaning there’s a 90% chance that the actual change in payrolls in a given month is that much higher or lower than the reported change.  So, given last month’s initial print of 88,000, we can’t rule out the possibility we actually lost jobs.Well, one reason for all the attention, courtesy of GS analysts, is that the jobs report doesn’t just move markets.  It moves markets far more than any other economic indicator.  The figure below plots how equity futures and the yield on the 10-year T-bill respond to upside surprises in the various indicators we all pour over.Continue Reading… Read More

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Don’t get your hopes up for tomorrow’s jobs report

I’m expecting 130K on total payrolls and 135K on private, so I’m below consensus, which Bloomberg puts at 153K for the total.  I expect the unemployment rate to maybe tick up a tenth.And that’s all the time we should spend forecasting these volatile monthly numbers.  More interesting, I think, is the question of why everyone gets so wrapped up in the monthly numbers when the actual signal-to-noise ratio they yield is not that high.  The 90% confidence interval around the payroll number, for example, is about 100,000, meaning there’s a 90% chance that the actual change in payrolls in a given month is that much higher or lower than the reported change.  So, given last month’s initial print of 88,000, we can’t rule out the possibility we actually lost jobs.Well, one reason for all the attention, courtesy of GS analysts, is that the jobs report doesn’t just move markets.  It moves markets far more than any other economic indicator.  The figure below plots how equity futures and the yield on the 10-year T-bill respond to upside surprises in the various indicators we all pour over.Continue Reading… Read More